Everybody is talking about
the Internet stocks. The real story of the Internet is not about stocks,
however; it is about clocks. Real-time, i.e., instant, communications
will have an enormous impact on our lives by changing both the way we
learn and the way we earn. It is still enjoyable to use my time to go
to the library to collect information, for example, but it is no longer
necessary. Now I can retrieve documents from any library in the world
instantly from home. I do not even need a library card any more, and
library fines - the nightmares of my youth - are obsolete.
The Internet literally takes time out of doing work (chrono-suction?)
by eliminating all the queuing costs of collecting information and communicating
with others. These wasted bits of time that are sandwiched between all
the truly useful things we do in our lives represent a tremendous waste
of energy. At one point long ago, it took months for a letter to make
one round trip between New York and London to clarify a business idea.
In the meantime, people on both sides of the Atlantic sat around aging.
One day last week I had five email round trip conversations with man
in Singapore in one day without interrupting my regular work.
In the same way that compression software squeezes the empty space
out of computer files, the Internet squeezes the waiting time out of
our lives. Analytically, this should have the same beneficial effects
on the economy as an increase in our effective life span. We will get
more useful things done in our life times.
Leonardo da Vinci lived to be 70 years old. Out of Leonardos
70 years, I will bet he spent 30 of them metaphorically walking to the
library. He had to wait to get information, wait for answers when communicating
with people and wait to receive the materials he needed to create his
wonderful works of art. Delays in communication and transportation interrupted
every aspect of his life. That means he had an effective, or productive,
life span of only 40 years.
What could Leonardo have accomplished if he had lived for another 30
years? What paintings, what sculptures, what inventions would we have
today if Leonardo had been able to devote his time to better use? Real-time
communications has increased the ceiling on the amount of experience,
information, knowledge and useful work that a person can accumulate
and use in the three score and ten years we have to make our mark.
Taking the time out of business also takes the need for capital out
of business. The Austrian economists wrote about capital as a means
of increasing the roundaboutness of production. We need
capital to feed the fisherman and his family while he takes time away
from catching fish to produce a net that will improve his productivity
later. This method of fishing, by first building a net, is more
roundabout, i.e., takes longer, than using a fishing pole today, but
it is more productive. Capital is a way to bridge time.
If you don not need time, you do not need capital. The Internet is
radically decreasing our need for capital, driving real interest rates
lower at a given level of output. Conversely, real-time communications
are increasing the level of economic growth that we can produce with
our current stock of capital. Thats why, for the past four years
in a row, the economy has grown at about twice the rate the economists
had predicted.
The explosion of the Internet means more growth, lower interest rates,
and higher stock price multiples than traditional analysis would suggest.
Whether we own Internet stocks or not, the Internet phenomenon will
have a positive impact on all of us.
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