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Forrest Gump On Rebuilding Iraq
May 7,2003

 

Like Forrest Gump, I stumble into a lot of interesting situations. Lately, I have been helping the Treasury Department's task force develop the plan for rebuilding Iraq. There's not much to sort out: just law, education, health care, currency, banking, capital markets, debts, land and oil.

As you can imagine, this is an economist's dream assignment, like standing in front of a giant blank canvas with a paintbrush. Of course, there's not enough paint, some spots on the canvas explode when you touch them and there are 400 other guys with paintbrushes trying to box you out. Earlier this week, we met at the Treasury to discuss some of these topics. How this plays out is important for businesses and investors here at home. Here are a few of the issues you should watch for.

First, like the T-shirt that says, "So much beer, so little time," there is a ton to do and not enough experienced people to do the work. Don't look for detailed, elegant solutions. They are not going to happen. This is going to be on-the-job training.

Don't expect every problem to be addressed at once. Public order and rule of law need to precede private property rights, which need to precede issues of who owns what, securities markets and how to manage the ownership and proceeds from oil production. Currency and banking matters are important to get right, but they are not emergencies requiring tourniquets. The $20 bills circulating on the streets and in the souks are working fine for now.

We must remember it's not Kansas out there--to us. Hubris is dangerous. Transplanted structures and solutions that make sense to us may not fit Iraq at all. Solutions must respect Iraqi's history, culture and religious beliefs or they won't last.

It is Kansas out there, however, to Iraqis and their neighbors in the region. There is a lot to gain from tapping into the knowledge and experience of Iraqis, Iraqi expatriates and Iraq's neighbors. We will ask for help.

Don't be surprised if Iraq's economy does a lot better than pundits predict. Iraq has the same secret weapon that allowed Ireland and China to lead the world in growth in the last decade--vast numbers of rich, educated expatriates who care about their homeland. They will be the biggest, most knowledgeable and most reliable source of capital and trained business people to feed Iraq's growth.

Don't be surprised by the problems that accompany economic booms. There will be price distortions and inflation issues. There will be an Oklahoma Land Rush of investors intent on buying Iraq's land and other assets on the cheap in the early days. There are always a few carpetbaggers in the crowd. These are sideshows, and they won't derail the progress any more than they did in Germany, Japan or Korea in their day.

These events will have huge effects on the world economy. In particular, secure rule of law in Iraq will allow efficient security markets that could help stabilize oil prices by allowing oil owners to sell future oil deliveries in place of spot oil shipments when they want to raise cash or diversify their wealth.

Investors are going to make a lot of money, as we always do when new markets, with high return on capital, become attractive for investment. Companies in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are best placed to capitalize on these opportunities, but U.S. firms will benefit too. In addition to the obvious companies in engineering and construction, like Fluor (nyse: FLR - news - people ) and Bechtel, oil service, like Halliburton (nyse: HAL - news - people ), and defense industries, many others will benefit. They include the subcontractors that provide building materials, such as Trane (nyse: ASD - news - people ), and the equipment companies that will build the phone system, like Motorola (nyse: MEU - news - people ).

And then of course there are the companies that provide products for the massive humanitarian aid efforts, like food giants Cargill and Archer-Daniels-Midland (nyse: ADM - news - people ) and health care firms such as Johnson & Johnson (nyse: JNJ - news - people ) and Pfizer (nyse: PFE - news - people ).

As Forrest Gump might say, "Growth happens."