(February 13, 2008) – The Census Bureau released its Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Report for January 2008 this morning, announcing advance January retail and food sales of $382.9 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. This figure was an increase of 0.3% from the previous month and 3.9% year-over-year. The November/December percent change was unrevised from -0.4%.
Retail trade sales, not including autos, were up 0.4% (±0.7%) from December 2007 and were 3.8 % (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 23.0% (±2.8%) from January 2007 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 10.6 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
Although the numbers don’t have a blue flame coming out behind them, they are not as butt-ugly as people had been expecting–so the stock market had a very good day (DJIA +178, or +1.5%; NASDAQ +2.3%).
Remember, however, that these numbers are not adjusted for price changes. The CPI increased 4.1% in the 12 months ending in December, which erases any real growth in the numbers. And the 23% increase in gasoline station sales is all price due to rising oil prices. If we subtract gasoline station ($36.3 billion) sales from the total ($348.3 billion), we can calculate a retail and food service except gasoline stations number ($312.0 billion), which has increased by +2.8% over the last 12 months–less than inflation.
I think this may be the ugliest number we see this time around, with some improvement in February and March. That would make the Q1/08 number come in between 1.5-2.0%, high enough to keep the Q1 GDP number out of recession territory. If that happens, of course, our leaders in Washington will be quick to attribute the gains to the stimulus package they signed today, even though the first checks won’t hit the street until May. Good timing, guys!
JR
