Summary: I spoke with CNBC Power Lunch anchors Melissa Lee and Tyler Mathisen today about global political events and whether it is possible to end up with a trade deal Trump can call a win. You can see a brief video of the spot by clicking here for my answer.
For Congressional testimony watchers, today was like drinking from a fire hose. Fed chairman Powell told us the Fed is likely going to stop selling bonds and shrinking its balance sheet back to normal. Bob Lighthizer, our Trade Ambassador, warned us not to expect to solve all our problems in one trade deal. And Michael Cohen told us told us that working for Mr. Trump is like trying to make a pig sing: it’s a lot of work, the pig doesn’t like it, and when you’re done the singing really all that good. Trump’s meeting in Hanoi with Kim Jung Un had a hard time making it to the front page.
I argued that the reason both sides are ready to make a deal is that it is now obvious to everyone that the trade war virus has spread to other places, asa shown in recent reports from Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and even Germany.
Regarding the trade deal, Bob Lighthizer was on target in his testimony. There is likely to be a deal. It will get a lot go things done But it won’t solve all our problems with China for all time. He also suggested that we will see something in the announcement about stabilizing the Chinese currency against the dollar, but that at the moment their central bank was actually propping it up, not pushing it down, a topic he and I discussed at length at the White House a few weeks ago.
In any deal, it is important that both sides can go home and tell their people that they kicked the other guy’s butt. Both sides will be able to do that with this deal. That fact is helped by the fact that most people here can’t read Mandarin and won’t bother to hunt for a translation of Xi’s press release. Hope you enjoy the spot.
JR
