OK, I actually like it here too. There, now I have confessed.
When my pen dries up and I can’t write it is not a pretty thing. Just ask Pamela and the kids. When it happens, it is not because I have nothing to say–I can do TV and radio and talk with print reporters about ideas all day long. It’s because I can’t figure out how to untie the knot of ideas and things I’ve seen so that I can make them follow the straight line required to write them down. Fortunately, there is a solution–a deadline.
This week I am blessed with a deadline to deliver an article on Asian Energy Security and the Middle East for the BOAO Forum for Asia, where I will speak in late April in Boao, Hainan, China’s island province lying in the South China Sea. The Boao Forum is a non-government organization founded in 1988 by the former Prime ministers of Australia, the Phillipines, and Japan. It’s mission is regional economic integration and development. It’s General Secretary, Long Yongtu, is the extraordinary man who negotiated China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. The conference will be attended by more than 1300 delegates from all over the world discussing a rich set of topics.
This topic is an important one for reasons that everyone knows. World growth is raising living standards for billions of people but is increasing energy demand faster than supply. Incremental supplies come largely from the politically troubled Gulf Region, where peace is not likely to break out soon. Stopping growth is not an option for most governments. Competition for energy resources is the most likely source of future conflict among nations.
I am going to use the article and talk at the forum to present some ideas I have been working on for some time that view economic activity as energy transformations powered by current and stored solar energy according to the laws of thermodynamics. The energy problem will only be solved if we broaden our notion of energy supplies to include all stores of energy, if we view economies as information networks, if we view investments in education and information technology as substitutes for fossil fuels, and if we realize that productivity growth is the only way the entire world can grow without fighting over oil.
More to come.
JR
Dear Doctor Rutledge –
Thank you for your post of 3/23/07 and good luck with your article and next talk on the economics of stored energy and peace!
I finally had the opportunity to meet you, speak with you and listen to you at the Yale China conference last spring. Did you find your four people for the spots in China?
Your exceedingly rare posts are always appreciated. This rare response is regarding recent post and distant conference.
I comment upon this latest post because you were good enough to share some of these developing thoughts with us in New Haven. It was fascinating, thought provoking and hopeful then. I can see why your brain might hurt as you work your way forward on this. I hope more people continue to hear you and perhaps listen too.
Best regards,
Productivity growth, energy and peace!
Rick Kagan
Generations Capital Inc
Chapel Hill, NC
To quote Carl Sandberg in response to the following from yours of today:
“The energy problem will only be solved if we broaden our notion of energy supplies to include all stores of energy, if we view economies as information networks, if we view investments in education and information technology as substitutes for fossil fuels, and if we realize that productivity growth is the only way the entire world can grow without fighting over oil.”
“Go to it ol’ Jazzman!”
We’re counting on you!
DFD
Douglas Duchek
Bloomfield Village, Michigan
Hi John, I know you visit China frequently and I have been wondering, do you give your talks in English or Chinese? Is it necessary to be able to speak Chinese at the events you attend or do the attendees usually speak English? Could you recommend any resources for someone interested in learning Chinese for business? Thanks, and keep doing more Kudlow & Company shows, you’re one of their best panelists!
Brian
Brian,
Thanks so much for your note. When I give lectures in China I start in Chinese until I run out of gas, then switch to English. At this point I am good for somewhere between a paragraph and a page. It’s not necessary to speak Chinese to be effective in China–the young people speak English; there are many translators to help you talk with older people; and the conferences generally have simultaneous translators. Peoploe in China, however, will greatly appreciate the honor you show them by trying to learn their language and culture. It is a great act of respect. The best tool for learning Chinese is Pimsleur tapes. You can get the beginning course (18 half hour lessons) at Amazon or Barnes & Noble for about $40. I have used their courses for more than a dozen languages and find them the best.
JR