A Trade Deal Will Be Announced Next Week. Markets are Going to Like It.

Summary: Told you I was the Forrest Gump of economics! I recently had an extraordinary opportunity to give a private briefing to a group of Cabinet members at the White House on the Chinese economy, currency and the structure of an agreement that I thought they might be able to accomplish. Yesterday, I joined the anchors on CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss the substance of my briefing, and to comment on the ongoing negotiations. I stayed on to discuss the Trump/He press conference held after the meetings. As I am sure you have heard, both countries are likely to sign a trade deal next week. Markets are going to like it. You can see a video of the interview by clicking here.

CNBC Closing Bell, February 22, 2019

As I said in the interview, both sides appear ready to make a deal that will end the destructive trade war. And not a minute too soon. Why the urgency now? Recent economic reports show widespread slowing of economic activity in China, the US, the UK, Germany, Japan, Korea, and many emerging markets. Apparently, all these countries are actually connected with each other through global trade. Who knew?

I have done a number of interviews on various aspects of the trade war in recent weeks. So, in order not to cause a tsunami in your inbox, I have decided to put several of the links in this one post. Here are a few of the links, with most recent at the top: I hope you enjoy watching them as much as I did making them.

  1. 2/22/19. CNBC Closing Bell. “Possible for trade deal to get done right now, says Safanad CIO.
  2. 2/22/19. CNBC article on my recent briefing. “Ex-Reagan advisor John Rutledge on China talks.”
  3. 2/11/19. CNBC The Exchange with Kelly Evans. “More ‘sensible asks’ to come from US China trade talks, says Safanad CIO.”
  4. 1/22/19. CNBC The Exchange with Kelly Evans. “Manufacturing China shrinking before and during trade war, says Safanad CIO.” (beware the embarrassing typo!)
  5. 1/14/19. CNBC Closing bell. “China manufacturing economy weak, say experts.”
  6. 1/7/19. CNBC Power Lunch. “There will be US-China trade announcement, says chief investment officer.”

JR

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