JR
BEA Indicators- Marine Economy Satellite Account, 2023 June 5, 2025
- U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2025 and Annual Revision June 5, 2025
- Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025 May 30, 2025
- Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025 May 29, 2025
- Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2023 April 2, 2025
- Gross Domestic Product by State and Personal Income by State, 4th Quarter 2024 and Preliminary 2024 March 28, 2025
By John Rutledge
Lessons from a Road Warrior:
How I fell off a horse, earned 15 million air miles, got sand in my shoes and learned how to invest- BEA Indicators
- Marine Economy Satellite Account, 2023
- U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2025 and Annual Revision
- Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025
- Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025
- Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2023
A little off topic Dr. Rutledge what are you’re thoughts on the Australian dollor and the ETF “EWA”, is Australia a good play against the weak/weakening dollar?
The editorial board of the Wall St. Journal this morning writes: “…the Fed [is] risking future inflation by putting rates into negative real territory … and devaluing the dollar.” Meanwhile, Ronald McKinnon writes a lengthy Op-Ed in today’s Journal arguing that the Fed has been too easy.
Which is it? Crunch? Or excessive ease? These polar opposite takes on monetary policy leave my head swimming.
Kenvk
Kenvk,
Great question. That is definitely the most important thing to sort out. I will write a longer piece on this for the blog in the next couple of days. I think that people are confused on this issue because they are trying to explain everything with only supply changes. But policy also has a big impact on the demand for a currency. I believe the Fed’s supply or reserves has been quite tight, but at the same time we have been doing things to undermine global demand for dollars (for example, by telling investors they are not allowed to use their dollars to buy US assets), which is why the dollar has fallen so much.
JR
Dr. Rutledge,
The “Crunch!” hypothesis is interesting, but is it consistent with the decline of exchange rate of the dollar (as well as relatively high inflation rates in countries pegged to the dollar) over the same period?
Tom
The “Crunch!” graph could just as easily have been cited in 2006, when the economic upturn was vey much in full swing. Accordingly, the monetary base data has had absolutely zero predictive value. This kind of sophistry is atypical of your usually thoughtful use of data.
Kenvk
Yes, and the systematic slowing of the monetary base and reserve growth before and after 2006 is what set in motion the forces that ultimately forced the repricing of both leveraged loans and mortgages. I think the Fed’s myopic fixation on targeting Fed funds rates has done enormous damage.
JR
Dr. Rutledge,
What do you make of this depository data? http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
Justin
Justin,
Good source. It shows that the Fed has not increase the monetary base at all since last August, before the mortgage crisis hit the headlines. Too tight. You might also enjoy the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis weekly report, U.S. Financial Data. Good summary, mailed to your inbox every Thursday at no cost.
Thanks for your note.
JR